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NHC Graphical Outlook Archive

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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A fast-moving tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles. Although
showers and thunderstorms are fairly well-organized, there are
currently no signs a closed surface circulation.  However, this
system has the potential for some slow development during the next
couple of days, but the best chance for tropical cyclone formation
is likely to be by the early to middle part of next week when the
wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea.  This system is expected to
bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser
Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should spread westward across the eastern
Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola by tonight and on Monday. Interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 650 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde islands has changed little in organization. This
system is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development, if any,
should be slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Stewart

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