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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Orlene, which is near Las Islas Marias near southwestern 
Mexico.

1. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.  Satellite imagery also indicates that the surface 
circulation has become better defined.  If these trends continue, a 
tropical depression is likely to form Monday or Monday night while 
the system moves slowly northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area 
of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during 
the next several days.  The low is forecast to move generally 
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn 
northwestward toward the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts