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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Orlene, located close to southwestern Mexico.

1. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show 
signs of organization. Additional development of this system is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. 
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development 
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has developed several hundred miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during 
the next several days.  The low is forecast to move generally 
west-northwest during the next couple of days, but could turn 
northwestward after midweek. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Brown