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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of disturbed weather continues to produce disorganized 
showers and a few thunderstorms within a couple of hundred miles off 
the southern coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the 
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this 
weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Papin