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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 1 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in 
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure 
located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are somewhat 
conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a 
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week 
while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure is producing a few disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms a few hundred miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. 
Development of this system is no longer anticipated due to 
unfavorable environmental conditions as it moves generally 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin