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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an elongated area of low pressure located about 650 
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Environmental 
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is expected to form later today or Saturday while 
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more 
information on this system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by 
the NOAA Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little overnight in 
association with an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for 
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form over the weekend while the system moves generally 
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
off the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low 
pressure.  Gradual development of this system is expected during 
the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression 
early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on 
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

Forecaster Cangialosi