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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends several hundred 
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while moving 
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast 
of southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are 
likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, 
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, 
which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system 
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven