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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles 
southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

1. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low pressure area is 
forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula, and the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is becoming a little better organized.  Environmental 
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while 
the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next few days before the system 
reaches cooler waters over the weekend.  This system is forecast to 
move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this 
weekend or early next week while it moves generally 
west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg




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