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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become a little
better defined today.  In addition, the associated showers and
thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional
development, this system is still likely to become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
during the past several hours in association with a broad area of
low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja peninsula. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development.  This system is expected to
move slowly westward or west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi