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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large disturbance located about 850 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a broad area
of low pressure.  While this system is producing a large area of
shower and thunderstorm activity, there are no signs yet of a well-
defined surface circulation.  However, environmental conditions
appear favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next
couple of days.  This disturbance is forecast to move toward the
northwest and then northward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with a weak
area of low pressure located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii.  Development of this system is not expected
while it moves slowly westward into the central North Pacific basin
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Brennan