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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward 
for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this 
weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
Satellite data indicate that a well-defined low pressure area has 
formed about 150 miles southwest of Bermuda.  This system is 
currently producing a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  Environmental conditions are forecast to remain only 
marginally conducive, and any additional development should be slow 
to occur over the next day or so.  By late Saturday, upper-level 
winds are forecast to become even less favorable, and the low is 
expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.  
Therefore, development after that time is not anticipated. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown