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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate a trough of low pressure 
extends over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it continues to 
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A 
surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern 
portion of the trough axis tonight, and a subtropical depression 
could form during the next day or so while the system moves 
northward over the western Atlantic. By late Saturday, upper-level 
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development, and the 
low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion 
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and 
a tropical depression could form early next week while the 
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the 
central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart