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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate a trough of low pressure
extends over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A
surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern
portion of the trough axis tonight, and a subtropical depression
could form during the next day or so while the system moves
northward over the western Atlantic. By late Saturday, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development, and the
low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the
central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.