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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.

1. Eastern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean 
Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the 
southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent 
waters. While surface observations do suggest broad rotation 
and pressures are lower than 24 hours ago, there currently is no 
definitive proof that a well-defined circulation exists. While land 
interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder 
significant development during the next day or so, environmental 
conditions are expected to be generally favorable for development as 
the system moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form in the next couple of days by the time the system enters the 
south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the 
ABC Islands during the next day or two.  Interests in those 
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue 
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance over the far southeastern Caribbean 
Sea can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at 
www.hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin