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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.

1. East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located near the southern Windward 
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Radar imagery from Barbados and surface 
observations indicate that the system has not become any better 
organized since yesterday.  However, upper-level winds are forecast 
to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains 
over water while moving generally westward at about 15 mph over 
the southeastern and southern Caribbean Sea.  An Air Force 
reconnaissance mission is currently en route to investigate the 
system this morning. 

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the 
ABC Islands during the next couple of days.  Interests in those 
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue 
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be 
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Brown