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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands.

East of the Windward Islands:
1. A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward 
Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms. Earlier data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunters indicated that the system did not yet possess a well-defined 
circulation center, with the majority of the shower and thunderstorm 
activity displaced to the southeast of the broader rotation. 
However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the 
next several days if the system remains over open waters while 
moving westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and 
into the Caribbean Sea. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is 
scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning, if necessary.

1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward 
Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands 
during the next couple of days.  Interests in those locations, in 
addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be 
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Papin