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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the 
tropical wave east of the Windward Islands

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form during the next day or so while moving 
northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.  
Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for 
development by Wednesday and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Updated:  Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived 
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be 
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred 
miles east of the southern Windward Islands.  Although the wave 
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions 
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while 
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands 
tonight and early Wednesday.  Conditions appear to become more 
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches 
the central and western Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.  Interests in the 
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of 
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to 
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg