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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear to be 
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form in a day or two.  Further development should become 
less likely late this week due to increasing upper-level winds.  The 
system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern 
Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible 
during the next several days while the wave moves generally westward 
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern 
Caribbean Sea by midweek and the western Caribbean over the weekend. 
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch