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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with 
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
in a day or two.  Further development will become less likely late 
this week due to increasing upper-level winds.  The system is 
forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by 
mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have 
changed little in organization during the last several hours.  Slow 
development is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward 
Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.  Interests in the 
Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Brown