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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda, 
and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a couple of hundred miles 
northwest of the central Azores. 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
low pressure system located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea 
about 150 miles east-northeast of Curacao.  The upper-level wind 
environment over the low is expected to become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during 
the next day or two while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
across the central Caribbean Sea.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty 
winds are likely to affect northwestern Venezuela, the ABC island 
chain, and northeastern Colombia through Friday.  Interests in 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress 
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave and 
located about 100 miles west of Dakar, Senegal, is producing a 
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of 
Senegal and Mauritania.  Although the system is pulling in nearby 
dry air, environmental conditions are forecast to otherwise be 
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form 
by this weekend while the system moves northward at about 10 mph, 
parallel to the coast of west Africa. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since earlier today 
in association with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite 
marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this 
system is possible over the next several days while it drifts 
northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg