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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the 
Azores. 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in 
organization since this morning.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.  The  
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the 
eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the 
central Caribbean Sea this weekend.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the 
Windward Islands tonight, and northern Venezuela, northeastern 
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.  
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying 
the system, and data from this mission will be assimilated into 
tonight's forecast models.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are 
associated with a tropical wave that is forecast to move over the 
far eastern Atlantic waters on Thursday.  Thereafter, environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a 
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system 
moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde 
Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite a dry environment, 
slow development of this system is possible over the next several 
days as it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown