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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles 
has changed little this morning.  Although environmental conditions 
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of 
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form 
within the next couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to move 
slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the 
northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the 
Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized. Some 
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a 
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during 
the next couple of days.  By late this week, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for 
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally 
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through 
Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone 
over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles 
west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days 
while the system drifts generally eastward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci/Pasch