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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of 
low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is 
producing winds to near gale force, but the circulation remains 
elongated with an ill-defined center.  Although environmental 
conditions ahead of the system do not appear conducive for 
significant development, a tropical depression, at the very least, 
is likely to form later this week while moving slowly toward the 
west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east 
and northeast of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
is producing limited shower activity.  Strong upper-level winds and 
dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system 
while it drifts southward over the central Atlantic during the next 
couple of days, and the low is likely to dissipate by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week.  Environmental 
conditions could support some slow development of the system 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
Monday night.  Some gradual development of the system is possible 
after that time while it moves generally westward across the far 
eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg