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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite and radar imagery, along with reports from an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, indicate there has been little 
change in the strength and organization of the low pressure near 
the southern coast of Texas during the last several hours. The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward and inland over 
southeastern Texas tonight. While slow development is still 
possible until the low moves inland, the chances of a tropical 
depression forming are decreasing.  Regardless of development, 
heavy rain and associated flooding are possible along portions of 
the Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about 
the potential for heavy rain and flooding, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any 
development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave 
moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is 
forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over 
the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development 
is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Beven