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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea to the 
north of Venezuela.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since 
this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to 
move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and 
northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still 
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near 
the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas 
on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible 
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic 
continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves 
west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to 
move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and 
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further 
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky