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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 700 miles east-southeast of the 
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely 
to form during the next day or so before the system reaches the 
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward 
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday.  A NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system and 
has found winds to tropical storm force.  Interests in the Windward 
Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor 
the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required for portions of these areas later today.  
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over 
the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday 
night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf 
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.  Development 
of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves 
west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern 
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo 
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual 
development later this week while the system moves west- 
northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch