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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 1100 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  However, 
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression 
could still form over the weekend.  This system is expected to move 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical 
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is located about 100 miles southeast 
of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Although the circulation of 
this system has become a little better defined since yesterday, the 
associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and 
located mainly well to the east of the center.   Environmental 
conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so 
while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the 
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts.   Regardless of development, 
this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this weekend.  Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few 
hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and 
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur over the 
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Pasch