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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of 
Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and somewhat limited 
in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure 
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression 
could still form over the weekend.  This system is expected to move 
westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during 
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the 
Outer Banks of North Carolina have changed little in organization 
this evening and the system still lacks a well-defined center.   
However, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or so while the system moves northward to 
north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts.  
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this 
weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA 
Ocean Prediction Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern 
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave just offshore 
of the west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this 
system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the 
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far 
eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Latto