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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nicholas, located over southwestern Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days.  This system is expected to move westward to 
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next 
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A low pressure system located about midway between the Bahamas and 
Bermuda is producing poorly organized shower activity.  An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system 
this afternoon reported that the circulation was disorganized and 
that the strongest winds were well to the east of the center.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to 
northward off the southeast U.S. coast.  Regardless of development, 
this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of 
Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Beven