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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico. 

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just 
west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since 
this morning.  Environmental conditions have become unfavorable,  
and significant development of this system is no longer expected. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association  
with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far 
northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the 
Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards 
warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some 
tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or so.  
After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over 
Portugal ending any further development chance. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa on Monday. Gradual development of this system is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of 
the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

4. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the 
southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a 
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough.  Gradual 
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression 
could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the 
Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Brown