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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. 

1. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central 
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  Although 
upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they 
are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next 
day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or 
Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward 
near the coast of northeastern Mexico.  Further development will be 
possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, 
and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should 
monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce 
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan 
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and 
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach 
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and 
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant 
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of 
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers 
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, this system is 
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo 
Verde Islands later today and tonight.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system will be 
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi




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