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Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Corrected 5-day formation probability for the second system

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the 
west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of 
Jamaica.  Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves 
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the 
Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel 
Friday and Friday night.  Given the recent developmental trends, 
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba 
could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
this afternoon.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall 
and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman 
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba 
and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. 

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night 
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern 
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm 
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, 
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday 
and Monday.  However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and 
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form.  
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this 
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 
600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
moves slowly eastward at 5 to 10 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about 
1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear a little more conducive for development during the next few 
days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the 
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 
mph.  Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development 
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg