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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of 
the system south of Jamaica. 

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better 
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less 
than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is 
expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to 
move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the 
Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given 
the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the 
Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be 
required later today. 

1. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will 
be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today 
and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous 
impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of 
the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas 
late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains 
large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas 
should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they 
have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later 
today, if necessary. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves 
slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development 
of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive 
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin/Beven