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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to updated the discussion 
of the low-pressure system northeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on 
Tropical Depression Grace, located over the northeastern 
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the 
Dominican Republic. 

1. Updated:  Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm 
activity has become better organized this afternoon in association 
with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about 
160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for continued development, and if these development 
trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the 
low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, 
near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, 
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island 
later tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Brown