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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fred, located about 105 miles west of Great Inagua, 
Bahamas.

1. Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a 
small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave 
about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  However, the low 
does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the 
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic.  This system is expected to reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there 
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg