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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical 
Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have 
increased during the past several hours. Earlier satellite-derived 
wind data indicated that this system does not yet have a 
well-defined center, but it is producing winds near 
tropical-storm-force to its east. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for additional development during the next 
day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form 
before the end of the week. This system is forecast move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A small low pressure system is embedded within a larger non-tropical 
low. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller 
low are showing signs of organization, the system will soon move 
inland over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development 
is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely 
bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of 
western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about 
potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the 
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more 
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles 
north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move 
quickly southward for the next several days and then stall over 
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest 
of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could 
subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or 
early next week while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system 
will be possible thereafter while it moves generally 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the 
Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2

Forecaster Zelinsky