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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the status of the 
reconnaissance mission originally scheduled for the system near the 
Straits of Florida and to increase the formation chances for the 
system in the tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated:  A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern 
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean 
waters.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it 
moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is 
expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today,
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on 
Thursday and Friday.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has 
been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Updated:  Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate 
that the low pressure system located about midway between the west 
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better 
organized.  If current trends continue, advisories could be 
initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today.  
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less 
favorable conditions should limit additional development by the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Beven