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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of 
Florida. 

1. An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast 
coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty 
winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida 
eastward across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic 
waters.  Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the 
low is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers 
and thunderstorms remain disorganized.  Continued gradual 
development is expected, and the system is likely to become a  
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight 
while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of 
Florida.  Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is 
expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic 
near or east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today.  In addition, 
hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next 
few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along 
much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See 
products from your local weather office for more details. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to 
investigate the disturbance.  The next Special Tropical Weather 
Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier 
if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi