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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the trough of 
low pressure located over the Straits of Florida has generally 
changed little today.  This system continues to produce 
a large area of disorganized shower activity and gusty winds 
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and 
the northwestern Bahamas.  Gradual development of this system is 
still expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical 
storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. 
Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to 
move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

1. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall and wind gusts to tropical-storm-force across 
portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas 
through Saturday.  In addition, hazardous marine conditions are 
expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale 
Warnings are in effect.  Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents 
are possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this 
weekend and early next week.  See products from your local weather 
office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. The next Special 
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT 
tonight, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi