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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida 
continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds 
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and 
the northwestern Bahamas.  Gradual development of this system is 
expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm 
on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. Later 
in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move 
generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday.  Tropical-storm-force 
wind gusts are also possible across portions of the Florida Keys, 
southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or so.  
In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along 
the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are 
in effect.  Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are possible 
along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and 
early next week.  See products from your local weather office and 
High Seas Forecasts for more details. The Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system today 
has been canceled, but an aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi