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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Melissa, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
the New England coast.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or two.  This system is forecast
to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.  Regardless of
development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of
Central America late this weekend and early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday.  Although
tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely
this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system
is possible before upper-level winds become unfavorable by the
middle of next week.  This system is expected move westward to
northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Cangialosi