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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located nearly 100 miles north of the northwestern
Bahamas.

1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day
or two.  Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of the week and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough.  Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown