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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to become slightly more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form tonight or Tuesday while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and
Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase and limit
the chances for additional development while the system moves
northward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall
across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, dangerous surf
conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast on Tuesday. For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1300 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale
force over the northern portion of the wave, while it moves quickly
westward at around 25 mph. This system could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next few days before it encounters
highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the
Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical
Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over
the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as
it meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan