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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles, and on Subtropical Storm Joyce, located a little less
than a 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. A trough of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of
Mexico.  Although associated shower activity remains limited,
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression before the system reaches
the western Gulf coast on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later
today, if necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico,
Texas, and Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
this weekend or early next week.  Some gradual development is
possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Roberts