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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure extending more than a thousand miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have not shown signs of organization during the past
day or two.  However, environmental conditions still appear
conducive for this system to consolidate and become better
organized, and a tropical depression could form next week while
moving west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight near a
tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea.  This system
is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some
development is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before
it reaches the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, and then again during
the middle part of next week while it is over the Bay of Campeche.
Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over
Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over
water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Berg