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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated non-tropical area of low pressure located about
250 miles northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is moving
north-northwestward at about 10 mph.  Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for the low to
acquire some tropical characteristics during the next day or so, and
this system could still become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
before it merges with a cold front over the western Atlantic late
Friday.  A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern Leeward Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Brown