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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda.

1. A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central
Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are not conducive for
significant development today while this system moves westward
through the Straits of Florida.  The low is expected to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba
through tonight.  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread
into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250
miles west of Bermuda.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.  As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina
by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.  For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.   An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

3. A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday.  Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan