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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located over
the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico has
become a little better defined today.  The associated showers and
thunderstorms are currently not well organized.  However, an
increase in the organization of this activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone at any time before the low moves
inland over eastern Mexico on Monday.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
low pressure area.  Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, areas of heavy rain are expected over portions of eastern
Mexico tonight through Tuesday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
high terrain.  For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi