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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Joaquin, located a few hundred miles northeast of the central
Bahamas.

1. A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico between Tampa, Florida and Apalachicola, Florida, continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and portions of the southeastern United
States.  Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent any
significant development of this system before it moves inland over
the northern Gulf coast later today, and the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft scheduled for today has been canceled.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, locally heavy rains are
likely over portions of the southeastern United States during the
next couple of days. For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. A large area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic several
hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida. Some slow
development of this system is possible later this week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven