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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located about midway between the central Bahamas
and Bermuda.

1. A sharp trough of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico about 150 miles west of Tampa, Florida, continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and portions of the southeastern United States. Surface
observations and data from a reconnaissance aircraft from a few
hours ago indicate that the system has become elongated. However,
the aircraft did find gale-force winds in the eastern portion of the
trough. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant
development of this system before it moves inland over the northern
Gulf coast on Tuesday.  Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Tuesday
morning, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not this system
becomes a tropical cyclone, locally heavy rains are likely over
portions of the southeastern United States during the next couple of
days. For additional information on this weather system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. A large area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic
several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida.  Some slow
development of this system is possible in a couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi