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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. An area of low pressure located over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds
over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected
to move northward at about 10 mph into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday and should then move more quickly northward or
northeastward as it interacts with an upper-level low near the
Texas coast. While upper-level winds are only expected to be
marginally conducive, there is some potential for this system to
become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern
United States early next week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if
necessary. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from
your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. Satellite imagery indicates that a weak area of surface low pressure
has formed about 450 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since
yesterday. Some additional gradual development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves toward the
north-northwest or northwest at 5 to 10 mph. After that time,
development is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan